30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High as Oil Breaks $110, Fed Hike Odds Near 87%
thePropTrade Week – Sunday 13th September 2026
5 min read
- September 13, 2026
Hi Traders,
This was a week of escalating conflicts, remarkable comments from Washington, and bond markets pushed to levels not seen in nearly two decades.
Missed last week’s action? Catch up on last week’s recap, where a blowout NFP report and Bitcoin’s surge to $82,200 dominated the headlines.
Iran and Canada Conflicts Both Escalate
This week the USA has seen an escalation in both its current conflicts. The war with Iran, now in its seventh month, has seen ships hit and disabled, missiles fired as far away as Jordan, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen taking over an island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, threatening Saudi oil exports. The trade war with Canada cranked up this week too, as Canadian “dollar-for-dollar” reciprocal tariffs kicked in from Tuesday. President Trump reacted immediately by banning some dairy and alcohol products, and even motorcycles. There is no sign of compromise from any of the three parties in these high-stakes conflicts.
Treasury Secretary’s Remarkable Comments Rattle Bond Markets
Rising yields, surging oil prices, and a rapidly recovering Yen dominated this week, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threw the gauntlet down to the bond vigilantes with some quite remarkable comments on Tuesday. He said “I am the house,” with regard to his insight into what Japanese government officials and the Bank of Japan may do, both next week and beyond, and then went further by saying, “You can bet against me if you want.” Quite remarkable comments from the US Treasury Secretary.
30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High, Oil Breaks $110
US 30-year yields hit a 19-year high on Friday at 5.42% (the benchmark US 10-year got within a few ticks of 5.00%). Brent breached $110.00 (and diesel broke $6.00 a gallon for the first time ever), closing the week at $105.75 – a 10% gain for the week – and USDJPY broke below 153.00, closing the week at 153.70.
Stocks Tank, Gold Whipsaws, Bitcoin Slips
Stock markets tanked before recovering on Friday, but for the week, stock markets were all lower: S&P 500 -0.79%, Dow -1.29%, and NASDAQ 100 -0.62%. Gold whipsawed from $4,440 to under $4,320 and the 200-day moving average, closing the week around $4,345. Bitcoin lost around 2.8%, unable to hold the $80,000 breach from last week.
ECB Hikes Rates as Fed Hike Odds Near 87%
The ECB hiked interest rates in the Eurozone by 25 bp, and the hawkish hike came with a warning that inflation will be “longer lasting” and the 2% target would not be achieved during 2027. Hot PPI (5.4% y/y from 4.8%) and a stronger Core CPI (m/m) reading of 0.3% – both data collections were as of August 11th, when Brent was $90.00 – pushed expectations of a rate hike next week from the FOMC to a near-certain 86.5%.
Finally, the new foldable iPhone Duo looks really sexy – but at $2,000, so it should.
The Week Ahead: Fed, BoE, and BoJ Rate Decisions
Next week could be a knockout. Interest rate decisions from the Fed (Wednesday), the BoE (Thursday), and the BoJ (Friday). Along with UK jobs, inflation data from Canada and the UK, and US retail sales.
Trade Safely!
Written by Stuart Cowell, Head of Education