NFP Blowout Beats All Estimates as Bond Selloff Deepens, Bitcoin Hits $82K
thePropTrade Week – Sunday 6th September 2026
5 min read
- September 06, 2026
Hi Traders,
Wow, what a week – again! September kicked off with a blowout jobs report, a deepening global bond selloff, and a wild ride for Bitcoin that had traders glued to their screens all week.
Missed last week’s action? Catch up on last week’s recap, where a hawkish Fed and a surprise US-Canada trade war dominated the headlines.
NFP Blowout Smashes Every Estimate
September has kicked off big time, and the blockbuster NFP data on Friday topped off a busy week. Headline new jobs for August were a blowout 162,000, compared to consensus expectations of 55,000 – even the most enthusiastic estimate from the big Wall Street banks (Wells Fargo) was only 80,000. Unemployment remained at 4.1% and the participation rate at 61.5%. Additionally, last month’s decline of -23,000 was revised higher to +21,000, a 44,000 variance. Seasonality factors and World Cup-related “hangover” hiring reasons were cited to explain the big beat; however, with high oil prices and a strong jobs market, pressure on the Fed to raise rates at their next meeting increases. Next Friday’s CPI data – the last key data point before the FOMC convenes – becomes even more critical.
Iran-US Tensions Resurface as Oil Rallies
Iran and the US exchanged their first attacks in a month, and there is still no solution on the horizon, with the US midterm elections looming less than two months away. Brent rallied this week, hitting $98.80 on Thursday before settling at $97.50.
Bond Selloff Deepens as Fed Odds Whipsaw
The markets’ focus remains on the global government bond selloff. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year hit 4.816% this week, a near three-year high. The Yen surged as expectations of a BOJ rate hike soared, with USDJPY falling from over 160.00 to 155.30. Mixed messages from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cooled expectations of a Fed rate hike – having raced to 65% from 35% last week – settling around 50% ahead of NFP. The week closed with expectations raised once again to 60%.
Stocks Flat, Gold Slips, Bitcoin Hits $82K Before Pullback
Stock and gold markets gyrated – lower, then higher, and finally down again on Friday. However, over the week, the S&P 500 gained just 0.1% and Gold lost 1.1%, settling at 7,718 and $4,430, respectively. Bitcoin recovered from $77,400 lows to hit $82,200 on Friday, before the strong jobs report pulled the key crypto back under $80,000.
The Week Ahead: Labor Day, CPI, ECB, and Apple’s Launch Event
Next week, US markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday, but the shortened week has US CPI (Friday) and PPI (Thursday), a rate decision (almost certainly a 25 bp hike) from the ECB, also Thursday, and Apple has its traditional September launch day (Wednesday), which will feature the latest iPhone (18) and its first foldable iPhone.
Trade Safely!
Written by Stuart Cowell, Head of Education