Oil Jumps on Iran Rumours as 10-Year Yield Hits 5.36%
thePropTrade Week – Sunday 11 October 2026
5 min read
- October 11, 2026
Hi Traders,
Yields and the Dollar continued to dominate this week’s market recap, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still hit new all-time highs on Tuesday before turning lower midweek. Oil jumped on rumours of a US strike on Iran and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane, while the US 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 5% for a 12th consecutive trading day.
Missed last week’s action? Catch up on last week’s recap, where a weak NFP cut Fed hike odds and yields held at 24-year highs. Bitcoin also touched $87,000 intraday.
Stocks Hit Record Highs Before Turning Lower
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new all-time highs on Tuesday before reversing lower midweek. The S&P 500 still closed the week above 7,800, at 7,811, up 1.1%. The Nasdaq closed at 27,365, its fourth consecutive weekly gain, and the Dow closed at 51,655, up 0.9% from Monday’s opening trades.
Oil Jumps on Iran Rumours and a Gulf of Mexico Hurricane
Oil rose on rumours of a US strike on Iran ahead of the midterm elections. The president subsequently denied the rumours. The first hurricane of the season, in the Gulf of Mexico, also closed at least 65% of production there. Brent was heading for $110 a barrel on Thursday before President Trump denied any imminent attack on Iran. It still closed Friday above $105, at $107.90.
Yields Stay Above 5% as Fed Minutes Confirm a December Hike
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has now been above 5% for 12 consecutive days. It hit a high of 5.36% this week and closed Friday at 5.244%.
Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC Minutes confirmed a likely December rate hike, with more to come in 2027. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now puts the chance of an October hike at less than 20%. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment reading missed expectations at 46.3, close to the record lows of May.
On Monday, President Trump’s approval rating hit a new low of 32% (Ipsos/Reuters), weighed by the war with Iran and the economy. The midterms are 23 days away, on 3 November.
Euro Breaks Below 1.12 as Spain Calls a Snap Election
The Euro broke below 1.1200 as protests continued in France and Spain’s prime minister called a surprise snap election. Cable breached 1.3200 and USD/JPY closed at 158.30. Weak Canadian jobs data, a 68,000 decline, helped USD/CAD hit an 18-month high. The Aussie stayed under 0.7000, the Swissy over 0.8300 and the Kiwi at 0.5600.
Gold Dips Below $4,100, Bitcoin Tests $80,000
Record yields and a strong Dollar continued to weigh on other assets. Gold dipped below $4,100 but recovered to close the week just shy of $4,200 as yields cooled on Friday. Bitcoin started the week within a few dollars of $87,000 on Monday. It then fell to test $80,000, its 50-day moving average, on Thursday before recovering to $83,000 on Friday.
Week Ahead: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales and Bank Earnings
CPI inflation data on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday lead the economic calendar. Thursday also brings Retail Sales, Weekly Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings run all week in Bangkok. Third-quarter earnings get into full swing, with the Wall Street banks all reporting from Wednesday.
Happy trading, everyone.
Written by Stuart Cowell, Head of Education