Weekly Market Recap
NASDAQ Hits Record High as Shock NFP Miss Rattles Markets
thePropTrade Week – Friday 7th August 2026
5 min read
- August 7, 2026
Hi Traders,
It’s mid-summertime, and stocks just posted another record week – led by a surging NASDAQ. Then Friday’s jobs report delivered the week’s real shock, reshaping rate expectations heading into September.
NASDAQ Leads Stocks to Fresh Record Highs
The stock markets have hit all-time highs again, and yet again it’s the NASDAQ that leads the three major indices, gaining 5.3% this week. The Dow closed up 3%, and the S&P 500 closed at 7757, advancing 3.6% over the last five trading days.
Shock NFP Miss Slashes September Rate Hike Odds
JOLTS Job Openings and ADP private payrolls suggested a cooler US jobs market earlier in the week, ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. But the NFP data was a major surprise, with the headline number negative for the fourth month in the last ten – only the fifth time since January 2021. New jobs declined by 23,000 in July (expectations had been for 85,000), and the last two months were also revised significantly lower. Earnings, participation rates, and the workweek all declined too. The only bright spot was the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.2% – but that was because of the number of people leaving the workforce.
The immediate reaction on Friday was a lowering of the expectation of an interest rate hike from the FOMC in September, down to 44% from 55% on Thursday and 67% at the end of July. Treasuries rallied and yields cooled – the US 10yr closed at 4.6393 – and the Dollar dipped, particularly against the newly empowered (at least for now) Japanese Yen. USDJPY closed right on its 200-day moving average at 157.80.
Oil Steadies Near $84 as Hormuz Breakthrough Stalls
Oil (Brent) traded under $80.00 a barrel midweek, having been as high as $92.00 last Friday. Enthusiasm for a breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz – with Iran controlling the northern (inward) channel and Oman the southern (outward) channel, while the key mid-channel is demined – gained a head of steam but came to nought, and Brent closed the week around $84.00.
Markets Stay Calm Despite Elusive US-Iran Deal
A significant US/Iran “deal” remains elusive, with Iran appearing to have the momentum and stories swirling of the US running low on munitions – a claim furiously denied by the Administration and the President. Markets remain sanguine and continue to look beyond the conflict.
Gold Hits 7-Week High, Bitcoin Tests $65,000
Elsewhere, Gold burst to a seven-week high at $4,370, and Bitcoin remains range-bound, but did trade north of the $65,000 resistance for a few hours on Friday.
The Week Ahead: RBA, CPI, PPI and Big Earnings
Next week the RBA is very likely to remain on hold (Tuesday), with interest rates in Australia already topping the major FX league at 3.85% – however, comments at the press conference could be key. The AUDUSD closed over 0.7000 for a seventh consecutive day on Friday, at levels not seen since mid-June. Wednesday has US CPI data, and Thursday has PPI data. The week concludes on Friday with the UoM Consumer Sentiment readings. Earnings season highlights this week include Berkshire Hathaway, CoreWeave, SMCI, AMAT, and – my personal favourite from many years ago – Cisco.
Trade Safely!