Weekly Market Recap
S&P 500 Tops 7,800 for First Time as Fed Rate Hike Odds Sink to 32.5%
thePropTrade Week – Friday 14th August 2026
5 min read
- August 14, 2026
Hi Traders,
Markets pushed to fresh records this week even as US-Iran tensions escalated further, AI earnings dazzled Wall Street, and Treasury yields hit levels not seen in over two decades.
US-Iran Tensions Escalate as Attacks Widen
The US-Iran War remains deadlocked, and political tensions continue to rise on both sides. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US will apply “unprecedented economic actions,” and President Trump talked this week of “economic isolation” for the Iranian regime. Military power has not succeeded – can additional economic sanctions succeed? The attacks continued and widened geographically, with drone strikes on Monday killing 4 seafarers in the Red Sea, and the US targeting an Iranian tanker off the coast of Pakistan.
S&P 500 Breaks 7,800 as AI Earnings Dazzle
However, investors are looking beyond the uncertainty and continue to discount its impact. There were all-time highs on the S&P 500 this week as it breached 7,800 for the first time, closing the week with a gain of 0.3% at 7,785. Four companies reported this week, highlighting the dominance of all things AI in a week when Wall Street – led by Goldman Sachs and Nvidia – launched plans for a $500 billion investment fund to make computing an “investable asset.” All four companies beat Wall Street estimates; however, their respective share performances differed wildly. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) gained 9.6% last week and added a monster +25% this week. CoreWeave gained +17.3% over the last five days. Conversely, the original internet hardware company Cisco, and Applied Materials (AMAT), both lost over 6.8%. Stock picking remains an art, and research is key.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Sink as Treasury Yields Hit 24-Year Highs
The Dollar cooled as US inflation data (both CPI and PPI) eased, and the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed next month tanked to only 32.5%, from well over 46% last week. However, worries over sticky inflation and the debt burden remain, pushing this week’s 30-year Treasury auction to highs not seen since 2001 – the auction closed at 5.22%, and the market closed Friday at 5.25%.
Gold’s Breakout Rally Continues, Bitcoin Stays Range-Bound
Brent hit $90.00 a barrel before declining sharply on weak demand expectations for the rest of the year, though it closed the week firmer at $89.50. The breakout rally on gold markets continued, as the precious metal hit $4,400 an ounce, closing the week at $4,375. Bitcoin continues to track sideways under $65,000, but supported at $62,000.
The Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes and Retail Earnings
Next week, the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday top the data releases. Earnings season is almost done, with strong beats dominating – it’s the turn of the retailers now, with Walmart, Home Depot, and Target among the ones to watch.
Trade Safely!